I've been giving a lot of thought to the ever-rising cost of energy lately. Why? Because our car only gets 20mpg (or less) and it costs nearly 20 dollars to visit Emma's grandparents for the evening just in gas costs and because our monthly gasoline bill has gone up 3x in 4 years. Also because even though we've insulated our home, changed all our bulbs to compact fluorescents and made changes like not using the dry cycle in the dishwasher and others.. and those changes have lowered our energy usage tremendously... the price we pay for that lower electricity and gas heat is... the same.
You hear a lot of reasons why gasoline has gone from under 2 to over 4 dollars a gallon in the last few years and despite the fact that speculation and other factors has something to do with it, the main reason is reduced worldwide supply (and here) and increased worldwide demand (and here). These are two basic economic facts, supply and demand, that will stay with us for the next few decades and continue to raise the price of fuel (and everything else that relies on fuel, like agriculture.
So, what are the solutions?
For our individual home, it's replacing our aging car with a smaller car that gets better mileage, more car pooling to school, more walking and bus/rail use, replacing our oven with a more efficient one (when it finally gives up the ghost, which it's about to), making a few more lifestyle changes (washing clothes in cold water actually works for most), and when we find it economically feasible (not there yet, but it's getting close) add solar panels to our house.
For the nation?
Well, I've seen a lot of stuff going around through email and on the net and from McCain's mouth that we need to open up offshore sites and Alaska to more drilling.
There is sooo much wrong with that solution, let me count a couple ways.
1. The scientific fact is that we are in an unprecedented level of global warming and climate change and that most of it has been precipitated by human activity. So, this solution would only keep us addicted to oil and is no solution to that particular problem, just continues the problem.
2. So, lets say you are one of those conservatives who still deny point 1. Let's look at that solution conservatively... benefits vs. costs. Even the government assessment of the situation says:
*The impact on oil production and price before 2030 (22 years from now) is nonexistent. It won't help production or prices for two decades.*Total oil production in the US after 2030 could be approximately 3% higher (7% higher for lower 48) than projected for 2030 with offshore oil. But since US produced oil is projected to only account for about 25% of the total US oil supply in 2030 (80% being imported, right now it's 38%US/62%imported), that's an increase of only about 0.7% or so of the total supply. The affect on prices in 2030 would be, in the words of the study, insigificant... "Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant. "
So, it's not going to increase production or lower prices for a couple decades and when our children are adults it will increase production ever so slightly but maybe lower prices by a penny or two (when gas will probably cost... oh... 20 a gallon or more).
Not much of a benefit, at all.
And the costs to the environment, tourism and fisheries in both the short and long term are high.
This conservative cost-benefit analysis doesn't wash.
And yet the Republicans are pushing it, the same "solution" (drill more! drill more!) that they've pushed for years and that has put us in this climate change conundrum and hasn't helped keep prices down or lower our dependence on oil (foreign or otherwise).
It's like oil is our drug and the Republicans are the pushers.
Yet, others have been begging for solutions for decades now (that if we implemented then, we'd be in a much better position today), that have gone largely ignored:
1. Mass Transit (rails, buses, etc) which is highly efficient in comparison to cars.
2. Conservation. Just use less, that will decrease demand and lower prices (US uses 25% of the world's oil, if we cut our demand drastically.. that will have an effect on prices)
3. Alternative Energies: Wind, Solar, Biofuels, Nuclear. They all have their downsides (cost, environment, etc), but with prudent consideration on a case by case basis and multi-pronged local approach, they could put a huge dent into our demand for and dependence on oil, perhaps someday nearly eliminating it, and the upside is great.
How we implement these is a more political question. Do we just let the market takes it's course (higher costs of oil will definitely spur investment in and use of alternative energy sources and higher conservation)? The libertarian part of me thinks this is part of the solution. Do we institute some government carrots and sticks to help the market along (gas tax, cap and trade, investment in research, monies for mass transit instead of highways)? The liberal part of me thinks this could be part of the solution.
What the solution isn't is doing the same thing (drill more! drill more!) that has got us into this mess in the first place.
Isn't doing the same thing over and over again even though it fails the definition of insanity?
